Trade Review and Trading Advice for the Euro

The price test at 1.1624 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for a long position in the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.

In the second half of the day, the U.S. economic calendar is expected to become significantly more active, as three key macroeconomic indicators are released that are directly related to the future course of Federal Reserve monetary policy. The sequence of events begins with the publication of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for May. This indicator is one of the most closely watched measures of the health of the U.S. economy, reflecting job creation dynamics outside the agricultural sector. Immediately after the employment report, the unemployment rate will be released. The combination of these two indicators—job creation and unemployment—provides a comprehensive view of the labor market, which in turn directly influences consumer spending and inflation expectations.

The highlight of the day's economic agenda will be the release of average hourly earnings data. This indicator is of particular importance to the Federal Reserve, as wage growth is one of the key drivers of inflation. All of these figures will undoubtedly be closely analyzed in the context of future Fed interest rate decisions, which will determine the further direction of the U.S. dollar.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, euro purchases can be considered when the price reaches the 1.1652 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1689. At 1.1689, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback from the entry point. A rise in the euro today is only possible in the case of weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2:

I will also consider buying the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1631 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a move toward 1.1652 and 1.1689 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1631 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1585, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure is expected to return in the case of strong U.S. data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2:

I will also consider selling the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1652 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. In this case, a decline toward 1.1631 and 1.1585 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buy trades
• Thick green line – estimated take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further upside above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for sell trades
• Thick red line – estimated take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further downside below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental data, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper money management is not used and large position sizes are traded.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.