On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday after rebounding from the support level of 1.3177–1.3199, consolidated above the 1.3341–1.3352 level, and by the end of the day reached the 1.3437–1.3465 level. A rebound from this zone today would allow for expectations of a reversal in favor of the US dollar and some decline toward 1.3341–1.3352. However, bears now have every reason to retreat from the market. A consolidation above the 1.3437–1.3465 level would increase the likelihood of continued pound growth.

The wave situation has once again shifted to bullish. The latest upward wave broke the previous high, while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics had provided bears with near-total dominance in the market over the past two months, but now the geopolitical backdrop has begun to improve, immediately boosting confidence among bulls. The hourly chart also shows that in recent weeks the pair has been trading sideways between 1.3177 and 1.3465.

The news background on Tuesday was entirely in favor of the bulls. First, the US durable goods orders report came in weaker than market expectations. Then it became known that Iran and the United States had reached certain agreements, and the military conflict was paused for two weeks. During this period, the Strait of Hormuz will remain open, and according to Donald Trump, negotiations with Tehran are progressing very well. Thus, hopes for a full ceasefire have emerged. Bears, who had enjoyed strong geopolitical support over the past two months, were forced to retreat. This could be just the beginning of a decline in the US dollar if the conflict in the Middle East does not reignite with renewed intensity. This evening, the minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be published, and traders may gradually return to focusing on traditional economic news. Let me remind you that the Bank of England may raise interest rates as early as April, while the Federal Reserve intends to keep its monetary policy parameters unchanged in 2026. Thus, bulls have grounds for attacking not only due to the temporary truce between the US and Iran.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has broken above a descending trend channel, which has not yet provided any real advantage to the bulls. The pound's quotes have risen to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3439, but this level has already triggered two rejections previously. Geopolitics has begun to improve, but bulls now need to break above 1.3439 to count on a trend. A consolidation above this level would increase the likelihood of further growth toward 1.3540 and 1.3664. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became slightly less bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 4,845, while short positions decreased by 912. The gap between long and short positions currently stands at approximately 51,000 versus 104,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders had been actively increasing shorts and reducing longs, leading to a strong imbalance between positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which is not surprising given the geopolitical backdrop. I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent months, there was first a correction within a bullish trend, followed by a steady escalation of the Middle East conflict. Geopolitics remains the only driver of the US dollar's growth.

Economic Calendar for the US and the UK:

• US – FOMC Minutes (18:00 UTC).

On April 8, the economic calendar contains only one minor entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday may be minimal.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair is possible today if there is a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.3437–1.3465 level, with a target of 1.3341–1.3352. Buying opportunities were available on a rebound from the 1.3177–1.3199 level with a target of 1.3341–1.3352. This target and the next one have already been reached. New buying opportunities may arise upon a breakout above the 1.3437–1.3465 zone, with a target of 1.3526–1.3539.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3341 to 1.3866 on the hourly chart, and from 1.3012 to 1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.