Trade review and tips for trading the British pound

The test of the 1.3502 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 15 points.

It is clear that traders do not believe in a complete breakdown of Iran–U.S. peace negotiations and continue to position for a rise in the pound, buying it after the morning gap. Despite occasional statements that are rather firm or defensive in tone, overall market sentiment suggests that the majority of participants expect diplomacy to ultimately prevail.

Since there is no U.S. economic data in the second half of the day, all attention will be focused on developments in the Middle East. The lack of U.S. macroeconomic releases means that market movements will be driven entirely by news flow, and in this case—by developments in the Middle East situation. The key factor will be the actions and rhetoric of U.S. and Iranian officials regarding a peaceful resolution. Any new signals—whether hints of a diplomatic breakthrough, an escalation in confrontational rhetoric, or tangible steps—could lead to significant market volatility.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy the pound at an entry point around 1.3532 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.3555 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3555, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move back from the level). A rise in the pound today can be expected within the bullish trend.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider buying the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3510 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward 1.3532 and 1.3555 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3510 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The main downward target is 1.3478, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pound may return today if the U.S. and Iran take a hardline stance.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider selling the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3532 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3510 and 1.3478 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering trades, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for intraday traders.