विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 09.04.2026 - Hormuz trap: fragile ceasefire and hidden costs of Middle East war. T...

09.04.2026 02:16 PM

Hormuz trap: fragile ceasefire and hidden costs of Middle East war. Trader's calendar for April 9–10

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Next week, the US Senate will again try to pass a resolution intended to restrict any further actions by Donald Trump without Congressional approval. Economists are already pointing out that rising US inflation and higher Fed interest rates carry global consequences. The fact is most sovereign debt remains denominated in US dollars, including debt owed to China by countries that borrowed heavily over the past two decades. That is a hidden cost of the Middle East war. In recent years, the share of countries experiencing debt distress rose to 54% in 2024 from 24% in 2013. Of the $475 billion of outstanding bilateral debt owed by low- and middle-income countries, Chinese loans account for about $147.5 billion, roughly 31%.

The conflict-driven energy crisis has also produced unexpected geopolitical consequences. Emma Ashford of the Stimson Center called them a "strategic mistake of epic proportions." Rather than strengthening the position of US resource exporters, the market shock is forcing Europe and Asia to accelerate a switch to renewables using Chinese technology. In effect, Donald Trump has undercut his own energy-dominance strategy, exposed limits to US power, and weakened America's long-term position in containing China.

As for the allegedly successful US–Iran negotiations, two documents are now on the table that experts call manifestos of mutual capitulation. Iran's ten-point plan demands the impossible from Washington:

guarantees of non-aggression
recognition of Tehran's control over the Strait of Hormuz and the introduction of transit fees
the right to enrich uranium
and (most unthinkable!) reparations for war damage

For Washington, accepting these terms would amount to a complete surrender in a region that has been "worked" for decades. Effectively, these demands amount to unconditional capitulation; only the clauses on a ceasefire look remotely acceptable — and even those under very strict conditions. The US counterproposal, encoded in an unpublished 15-point plan, is equally unacceptable to Iran. Washington demands full dismantling of nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow, transfer of enriched uranium to IAEA custody, an end to the missile program and cessation of support for proxy groups such as Hezbollah. For Tehran, complying with those demands would be political suicide and a loss of sovereignty even after total military defeat.

The publicly disclosed framework (a 14-day freeze of strikes in exchange for reopening the strait) looks like a probe, but Iran is unlikely to relinquish its only real leverage. The strategic disposition is clear: control of the Strait of Hormuz is existential for both sides. If Iran agrees to fully restore free navigation, the conflict would instantly shift into a phase of finishing off the regime, stripped of its deterrent tools. Aware of that, Tehran is willing only to allow controlled transits during a two-week pause while reserving the right to close the artery again at any moment.

The US president, initially counting on a quick-victory scenario, is now forced to seek an alternative exit. Peace initiatives arrived at a critical moment:

energy costs have already begun to break inter-industry linkages in the US
financial destabilization is mounting

So, just two hours before the deadline on his menacing ultimatum, President Donald Trump unexpectedly announced a two?week ceasefire with Iran. The day before, the American leader had promised to turn his adversary's infrastructure to dust, dubbing the operation a "day of power plants and bridges." Yet Tehran adopted a tactic the Pentagon was unprepared for: thousands of civilians were organized into "human chains" around strategic facilities. That human shield, combined with intensive Pakistani mediation, forced Washington to hit pause. The parties agreed to meet in Islamabad this coming Friday to try to sketch the outlines of a longer-term peace in the presence of Chinese representatives.

On paper, the ceasefire terms look simple:

mutual cessation of hostilities for 14 days
guaranteed safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz

However, Iran's negotiating baseline — which Trump hastily called "workable" — reads to the US like a list of surrender demands. Tehran insists on the immediate withdrawal of US forces from all regional bases, full unfreezing of assets, and payment of reparations for wartime damage. Moreover, Iran demands formal recognition of its right to enrich uranium and an end to attacks on its proxies — Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

Global media attention is fixed on a leadership change inside Iran. According to Reuters, the temporary ceasefire was approved by the new Supreme Leader, ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. In Tehran, the pause is already being hailed as a "historic defeat for the US," while Trump tries to save face by claiming that the goals of Operation Epic Fury have been met. The White House narrative asserts that Iran has been demilitarized and that talks are taking place with a "new regime," which would formally check off Pentagon objectives about neutralizing the threat. Still, the real status of nuclear facilities and the fate of US bases remain the most contested points.

The situation is complicated by internal coalition frictions and technical details. While Pakistan's prime minister says the ceasefire covers Lebanon, Israel has categorically rejected any halt to strikes on the northern front. The fate of the Strait of Hormuz is equally murky: Washington demands full, unconditional reopening, while Tehran offers only a "regulated passage" under its control and military coordination. For Iran, control of that artery is the last real leverage, and Iranian authorities are in no hurry to hand it over in exchange for a two-week bombing pause.

Financial markets welcomed the step toward de-escalation, but experts warn that optimism may be premature. A 14?day truce looks more like a technical pause to regroup forces and ease acute pressure on energy markets than a genuine end to the war. In this diplomatic tug-of-war, one leader will inevitably have to temper ambitions or risk appearing a "paper tiger." The question is whether Islamabad will become the birthplace of a new order or merely the backdrop before a second, bloodier act of Epic Fury.

Moreover, just hours after the US–Iran ceasefire was announced, the truce faced its first serious interpretive crisis. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Axios in an interview that she officially refuted claims by the Iranian side and Pakistani mediators, stating that the truce does not apply to Israeli actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Washington's stance instantly detonated new tensions. For Tehran, stopping strikes on its main proxy was a fundamental condition of the deal, and Iranian authorities now openly threaten to reclose the Strait of Hormuz if the fighting does not cease.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi issued a hard ultimatum to the US on X, saying that now the "ball is in the US court," and the world is watching whether the White House will meet its obligations. Egypt, which acted as one of the mediators, joined the accusations, calling Israeli strikes on Lebanon a "deliberate attempt" to derail the ceasefire. The situation is complicated by the fact that Hezbollah opened a second front against Israel five weeks ago, and that node of the conflict remains unresolved even amid US–Iran agreements.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz — the planet's main energy artery — is in logistical chaos. Despite Donald Trump's statements about "full and immediate" reopening of navigation, more than 800 vessels remain blocked on both sides of the strait. Shipowners are bewildered as they try to parse the details of the deal. Uncertainty remains not only about the exact timing for the ceasefire to take effect but also about the financial terms: Tehran has hinted at retaining "transit payments" that, at the height of the crisis, reached an astronomical $2 million per vessel.

The contrast in public statements is striking. Trump promises that the US Navy will "help with traffic" and ensure uninterrupted movement, while Iran speaks only of a two-week "safe passage" coordinated with its armed forces and subject to certain "technical restrictions." Before the war, roughly 135 vessels transited the strait daily. Over the past month, because of attacks and the mine threat, that figure has collapsed to a critical 15. Shipowners express only cautious optimism, stressing that a full restoration of traffic will require weeks of clear, consistent policy, not contradictory tweets.

The scale of the Gulf logjam is staggering in both size and cost. Kpler data show that tankers carrying energy make up the bulk of the bottleneck:

426 crude and product tankers
34 LPG carriers
19 giant LNG carriers

The rest of the fleet is carrying metallurgical products, grain, and containers. While diplomats in Islamabad argue about Lebanon, these vessels remain hostage to the situation, turning the Gulf into the largest parking lot in history for strategic commodities waiting for a green light that can be rescinded at any moment by another missile strike hundreds of miles away.

As Jennifer Parker of the University of Western Australia notes, you cannot physically restore global maritime traffic in a single day. For insurers, tanker owners, and crews, the key issue is not the formal ceasefire but a real reduction in risk — something that cannot occur instantly. Lewis Hart of Willis Towers Watson confirms that resuming traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will be an extremely gradual process. Former US intelligence adviser Michael Pregent put it even more bluntly on Bloomberg, saying that Tehran has effectively put the artery on manual control: Iranian authorities will decide who is allowed through, who is billed, and who is denied access for political reasons.

Tehran's financial demands have already taken shape. Iran has demanded a transit levy of $1 per barrel for oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz — and insists payments be made exclusively in cryptocurrency. The situation on the ground remains critical: just hours after the ceasefire was announced, Saudi Arabia's East–West strategic oil pipeline was struck by a drone. At the same time, Iran again halted tanker movements, citing continued Israeli strikes on Lebanon. The truce, barely begun, is already creaking at the seams, and alternative export routes via the Red Sea have come under direct attack.

Against this backdrop, the Pentagon adopted a language of hard ultimatums. At an emergency press conference, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth declared that Washington does not intend to negotiate on the nuclear issue. The condition is unambiguous: Iran must either voluntarily hand over all enriched uranium to the United States, or US forces will seize it themselves, using the experience of Operation Midnight Hammer. This statement effectively buries the diplomatic efforts of doves in Congress and pushes the world back toward a scenario of forcible dismantling of Iran's nuclear capability.

Markets, meanwhile, are reacting like a classic "victim of optimism." Wall Street indices all rallied by roughly 2% on the peace headlines. Brent crude plunged to $90. However, a modest easing in Washington does not resolve the systemic crisis. Nevertheless, the market is seriously pricing in at least one rate cut, effectively ruling out the chance of hikes. Traders have chosen to ignore even hawkish FOMC minutes and March inflation prints, deeming them outdated. They believe that the energy shock has been contained — despite the fact that, in reality, the Strait of Hormuz has become a paid, crypto-denominated parking lot under the watch of US aircraft carriers.

Despite market euphoria, disinflation will not happen overnight. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz and normalizing global logistics will take six to eight weeks. During this transition, oil prices will likely remain elevated, sustaining inflationary pressure in the near term. For the Fed, this period will be a test of resolve. Most likely, the regulator will treat current volatility as temporary noise. While long-run inflation expectations remain anchored, Jerome Powell and colleagues can afford a patient stance and look past short-term spikes. The base case remains unchanged, and the case for a year-end interest rate cut will become stronger over time.

Yet this idyllic picture is highly conditional. US Vice President JD Vance has already cooled investor enthusiasm, calling the situation a "fragile ceasefire." Any technical failure, provocation, or miscalculation would instantly restore the "military premium" to markets and shut the diplomatic window. The path to rate cuts is visible, but it runs across thin ice in negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Until Hormuz is genuinely open, any projection of policy easing must remain a cautious hypothesis.

April 9

9 April, 2:01 / United Kingdom / **/ RICS House Price Balance in March / prev.: -10% / actual: -12% / forecast: -18% / GBP/USD — down

The United Kingdom residential property market showed signs of cooling in February 2026, as the RICS price balance fell to -12%. Negative dynamics were recorded for the first time in four months, with the greatest downward pressure observed in London and the southeast regions. Although prices continue to rise in Scotland and Northern Ireland, overall short-term market expectations have returned to negative territory. Market sentiment, especially in the capital region, has noticeably stabilized after the sharp optimism of earlier periods. If the March reading falls to the forecasted -18%, the pound will come under pressure.

9 April, 8:00 / Japan / ***/Consumer Confidence Index in March / prev.: 37.9 pts / actual: 40.0 pts / forecast: 38.0 pts / USD/JPY — up

The consumer confidence index in Japan jumped to 40.0 points in February 2026, reaching the highest level in seven years. The positive dynamic covered all key components, namely,

- the assessment of overall living standards,

- employment prospects,

- household willingness to purchase durable goods.

Rising expectations for income signal the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus measures and citizens adapting to current economic conditions. Strengthening consumer optimism acts as a supportive factor for the Japanese economy. If the March index reaches the forecasted 38.0 points, the yen may weaken.

9 April, 9:00 / Germany / ***/ Exports (MoM) (Feb) / prev.: -2.5% / actual: 3.9% / forecast: -2.0% / EUR/USD — down

Germany's exports fell by 2.3% month on month in January 2026, amounting to 130.5 billion euro. The decline in shipments to eurozone countries and China offset a solid increase in exports to the US market, which remains the largest destination for German goods. Negative dynamics in external trade with the EU and the UK underscore the persistent weakness of global demand for German engineering and high-technology products. Current data point to a difficult start to the year for the country's export-oriented model. If February exports fall to the forecasted -2.0%, the euro will come under pressure.

9 April, 9:00 / Germany / **/ Imports (MoM) (Feb) / prev.: 0.7% / actual: 1.3% / forecast: -0.3% / EUR/USD — down

Germany's imports fell by 5.9% in January 2026, reaching a one-and-a-half-year low. The sharp reduction in purchases from EU partners and China signals a marked weakening of domestic demand amid the country's economic difficulties. Although imports from the US showed a double-digit increase, they were insufficient to offset the overall decline in consumption of intermediate and investment goods. A year-on-year decrease in import volumes of 4.0% confirms a trend reversal after moderate growth in 2025. If the February forecast of -0.3% is confirmed, the euro will weaken.

9 April, 9:00 / Germany /**/ Industrial Production in February (m/m) / prev.: -1.0% / actual: -0.5% / forecast: 0.9% / EUR/USD — up

Industrial production in Germany fell by 0.5% in January 2026, marking a second consecutive monthly decline. The main drag on the indicator came from reduced output in metallurgy, pharmaceuticals, and the electronics industry. The negative effect was partly offset by a surge in energy production due to low temperatures and moderate growth in the construction sector. Excluding volatile components, core industrial activity remains under pressure, reflecting structural problems in the industrial heartland of Europe. If production rises to the forecasted 0.9% in February, the euro will strengthen.

April 9, 15:30/ US/*/ GDP growth in the fourth quarter/ prev.: 3.8%/ act.: 4.4%/ forecast: 0.7%/ USDX (6-currency USD index) – down**

The US economy in the fourth quarter of 2025 demonstrated minimal growth at 0.7%. Such a weak result is due to a substantial downward revision to consumer spending, government investment, and net exports. The slowdown to the lows of early last year points to the exhaustion of the recovery impulse at the end of the year, despite sustained import volumes. The data confirm a cooling of the American economy under tight monetary policy. If the final GDP figure holds at the forecast 0.7%, the dollar index will decline.

April 9, 15:30/ US/***/ Consumer Inflation in February/ prev.: 2.9%/ act.: 2.8%/ forecast: 2.8%/ USDX (6-currency USD index) – volatile

The personal consumption expenditures price index, in January 2026, stood at 2.8%, slightly down from the two-year high recorded in the previous month. The reading exactly matched market expectations. However, it marks the fifth consecutive year in which inflation in the United States remains above the Federal Reserve target of 2.0%. Despite the emerging cooling trend, the resilience of the PCE index forces the regulator to remain cautious on easing monetary policy. This release traditionally triggers high volatility in the dollar index.

April 9, 15:30/ US/***/ Personal Consumption Expenditures in February/ prev.: 0.4%/ act.: 0.4%/ forecast: 0.5%/ USDX (6-currency USD index) – up

Personal spending in January 2026 rose by 0.4%, repeating December's dynamic. The main inflows of funds were directed to the services sector. Among them are:

· healthcare

· utilities

· financial services

At the same time, spending on goods, including autos and clothing, showed a decline. It is important to note that, adjusted for inflation, real consumption growth amounted to only 0.1%, which indicates the predominance of the price effect in the spending mix. If in February spending exceeds the forecast 0.5%, the dollar index will receive an upward impulse.

April 9, 15:30/ US/***/ Initial Jobless Claims / prev.: 211k/ act.: 202k/ forecast: 210k/ USDX (6-currency USD index) – down

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the fourth week of March fell to 202 thousand, substantially beating analysts' forecasts. The reading approached a two-year low, confirming the exceptional resilience of the American labor market to high interest rates. Such a low level of layoffs limits the Federal Reserve's room to maneuver toward rate cuts in the current cycle. Although the data are positive for the economy, for the dollar index this statistic may be a reason for a downward correction.

April 10

April 10, 2:50/ Japan/**/ Producer Price Index in March/ prev.: 2.3%/ act.: 2.0%/ forecast: 2.4%/ USD/JPY – up

Producer prices in Japan in February 2026 rose by 2.0% year on year, which is the weakest rate of growth in the past one and a half years. The slowdown in industrial inflation is due to cheaper:

· food

· transport equipment

· oil products

On a monthly basis, there was the first drop in prices in the last six months (-0.1%), which indicates easing cost pressure from imported raw materials. If March producer inflation comes in below the forecast 2.4%, the yen may weaken.

April 10, 4:30/ Australia/**/ Building Permits in February/ prev.: 1.1%/ act.: -15.7%/ forecast: 14.0%/ AUD/USD – up**

In February 2026, the number of building permits in Australia jumped by 14.0%, fully recovering from the deep January decline. The current result significantly exceeds the long-term average (2.47%), signaling a revival of investment activity in the construction sector. The sharp increase in approvals may foreshadow:

· a recovery in domestic demand

· an improvement in the country's real estate sector

If the forecasted growth of 14.0% is confirmed, the Australian dollar will strengthen against the US dollar.

April 10, 4:30/ China/*/ Rise in consumer inflation in March/ prev.: 0.2%/ act.: 1.3%/ forecast: 1.2%/ Brent – down, USD/CNY – up**

Consumer inflation in China in February 2026 jumped to 1.3%, marking a three-year high. The main driver was the Lunar New Year effect: prices for vegetables and pork recovered after a long decline. Even more importantly, core inflation reached 1.8% — a sign of a genuine revival in domestic demand. If in March the indicator stabilizes at the forecast 1.2%, this may cool speculative optimism, which traditionally weighs on oil prices and weakens the yuan.

April 10, 4:30/ China/***/ Producer Price Index in March/ prev.: -1.4%/ act.: -0.9%/ forecast: 0.4%/ Brent – up, USD/CNY – down

Deflation in China's industrial sector eased to -0.9% in February, the best reading in the past one and a half years. The government is actively managing capacities, and Premier Li Qiang explicitly names the restoration of prices as a priority of monetary policy. The shift of prices for intermediate goods into positive territory indicates a revival in factory demand. If in March the index moves into positive territory to the forecast 0.4%, this will be a signal for higher Brent and a stronger yuan.

April 10, 9:00/ Germany/***/ Consumer Price Index in March (final)/ prev.: 2.1%/ act.: 1.9%/ forecast: 2.7%/ EUR/USD – up

In March 2026, inflation in Germany, surged to 2.7%, according to preliminary data. The main trigger was an energy price jump of 7.2% due to escalation in the Middle East. While food prices are rising slowly, services and core inflation remain consistently high. The harmonized index (HICP) at 2.8% remains substantially above the ECB target, which limits the regulator's room to cut rates. Confirmation of the data at 2.7% will be a supporting factor for the euro.

April 10, 15:30/ Canada/***/ Employment Change in March/ prev.: -24.8k/ act.: -83.9k/ forecast: 15.0k/ USD/CAD – down

In February 2026, the Canadian labor market experienced a real shock: the economy lost almost 84.0 thousand jobs. This is the worst result since early 2022, with the main hit falling on full-time employment, which declined by 108.0 thousand. The trade and construction sectors are contracting sharply. If, in March, there is not a compensating rise to the forecasted 15.0 thousand, the Canadian dollar will remain under pressure because of clear signs of recession.

April 10, 15:30/ Canada/**/ Avg hourly wages Permanent employee in March/ prev.: 3.3%/ act.: 4.2%/ forecast: 3.7%/ USD/CAD – up**

Despite the collapse in employment, the cost of labor in Canada reached a record high: the average wage rose to CAD 38.49, up 4.2% year on year. Such a divergence between the drop in jobs and the rise in pay creates a difficult dilemma for the Bank of Canada, fueling cost-push inflation. If, in March, wage growth slows to the forecasted 3.7%, this could trigger a decline in the Canadian dollar.

April 10, 15:30/ US/***/ CPI (YoY) in March/ prev.: 2.4%/ act.: 2.4%/ forecast: 3.3%/ USDX (6-currency USD index) – up**

Consumer inflation in the United States in February 2026 showed stubborn persistence, holding at 2.4% — the lowest in the past ten months. While food and housing prices have stabilized, the energy sector has stirred, as gasoline and natural gas have resumed their rise. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remains at 2.5%, which is close to four-year highs. However, the market is holding its breath: if, in March, the reading rockets toward the forecasted 3.3%, this will give the Federal Reserve a carte blanche for a tougher policy and will kick off a rally in the dollar index.

April 10, 17:00/ US/***/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment in April (preliminary)/ prev.: 56.6 points/ act.: 53.3 points/ forecast: 52.0 points/ USDX (6-currency USD index) – down

The American consumer is clearly out of sorts: the Michigan sentiment index plunged to 53.3 points. Optimism is melting before our eyes across all social groups, but, especially, the middle class has taken the hardest hit. The reasons are on the surface:

· market volatility

· the conflict with Iran

· pump prices

The jump in inflation expectations to 3.8% is particularly worrying for the Federal Reserve, as it is the sharpest annual increase in a long time. If, in April, the index falls to the forecasted 52 points, the dollar index may appreciably weaken under the weight of household pessimism.

April 10, 17:00/ US/**/ Factory Orders in February/ prev.: -0.4%/ act.: 0.1%/ forecast: -0.1%/ USDX (6-currency USD index) – down

The US industrial sector showed a modest, but important, rise of 0.1% in January, breaking a streak of declines. While defense and commercial aircraft production are stalling, electronics and machinery are pulling overall figures up. Notably, excluding the transport sector, orders have been rising for a third consecutive month, which points to hidden resilience in industry. If, in February, the data confirm the forecasted decline of -0.1%, this could prompt a local weakening of the dollar.

April 10, 19:00/ Russia/**/ GDP Growth Rate Q4 / prev.: 1.1%/ act.: 0.6%/ forecast: 0.7%/ USD/RUB – down

The Russian economy recorded growth of only 0.6% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2025 — the weakest pace in recent years. The noticeable slowdown, after 1.1% in the second quarter, is explained by several factors, including low oil prices and sanction pressure on gas exports. Manufacturing and construction have slowed by half, while trade and transport have moved into negative territory.

April 10, 19:00/ Russia/**/ Consumer Price Index in March/ prev.: 6.0%/ act.: 5.9%/ forecast: 5.8%/ USD/RUB – up

In February 2026, inflation in Russia held at 5.9%, barely down from January's 6.0%. The figures came in above market expectations of 5.7%, which underscores persistent price pressure. The main driver remains the services sector, where prices jumped almost 10%, offsetting moderate food price relief. The Bank of Russia links this backdrop to tax and excise increases, which threatens the annual target of 4.5–5.5 percent. If the March report does not record a decline to the forecasted 5.8%, the ruble may weaken.

April 10, 14:00/ EU/ Speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos/ EUR/USD

Speeches by officials from major central banks are also expected these days. Their comments traditionally trigger volatility in the currency market, as they can indicate regulators' future rate plans.

The economic calendar is available via the link . All indicators are given on a yearly basis (y/y). When calculated on a monthly basis, figures are noted (m/m). Trade balance, exports, and imports are quoted in the domestic currency. An asterisk, *, denotes, in ascending order, the report's importance for assets available on the InstaForex trading platform . Please note that publication times are shown in MSK (GMT +3.00). Open a trading account here . See also video market news from the InstaForex Group . To keep the tools always at hand, we recommend downloading the MobileTrader app.