Analyzing Wednesday trades:
EUR/USD on 30M chart
The EUR/USD pair slightly rose on Wednesday, which is still quite difficult to explain. A couple of days ago, the quotes settled below the ascending trend line, which indicates a downward trend. However, after this shift in trend we only see an upward movement. The pair has not yet reached its local peak, but at this rate it will happen and very soon at that. Also, the euro's growth itself is quite questionable. In the first two days of the week, there were no important events or reports. The results of the euro business activity data remained below 50. The U.S. business activity reports were also weak, but then the dollar should have fallen in the last couple of hours, instead of continuing the same movement for the second day. Basically, the pair rose again and in my opinion, it is unjustified and illogical. We are still waiting for a strong downward correction, especially in the light of going through the trend line.
EUR/USD on M5 chart
The 5-minute chart shows that everything is as good as it can get. There were no signals, and I think this is for the best, since the movement is rather weak and sluggish, and even from a technical point of view, it is difficult to explain why the euro rose. So beginners did not have to open any trading positions on Wednesday. Volatility was weak, and it only increased in the last few hours because of the US data.
Trading tips on Thursday:
The uptrend has been canceled on the 30-minute time frame, just as we predicted a week ago. But there is no way the downtrend can continue, as we expect it to. The U.S. dollar did have the right to fall on Wednesday, but the European data was weak as well! But the market interpreted all the macro statistics the way it wanted, so again we saw an illogical growth from the pair. On the 5-minute chart on Thursday, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0093, 1.0123, 1.0156, 1.0221, 1.0269-1.0277, 1.0354, 1.0391, 1.0433. As soon as the price passes 15 pips in the right direction, you should set a Stop Loss to breakeven. On Thursday, several European Central Bank monetary committee members will deliver speeches, which could potentially provide interesting data to the markets. But the market is already buying the euro, so it is unlikely that speeches of Luis de Guindos or Isabelle Schnabel will affect its mood.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took the signal to form (a rebound or a breakout of the level). The quicker it is formed, the stronger the signal is.
2) If two or more positions were opened near a certain level based on a false signal (which did not trigger a Take Profit or test the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals at this level should be ignored.
3) When trading flat, a pair can form multiple false signals or not form them at all. In any case, it is better to stop trading at the first sign of a flat movement.
4) Trades should be opened in the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the US trading hours when all positions must be closed manually.
5) You can trade using signals from the MACD indicator on the 30-minute time frame only amid strong volatility and a clear trend that should be confirmed by a trendline or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 pips), they should be considered support and resistance levels.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14, 22, and 3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend patterns (channels and trendlines).
Important announcements and economic reports that can be found on the economic calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommend trading as carefully as possible or exiting the market in order to avoid sharp price fluctuations.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management is the key to success in trading over a long period of time.